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In another reversal, US President Donald Trump announced a unilateral, open-ended extension of the ceasefire in the Iran war. Now, there’s no peace, but no active war either. This may become the new normal: a fragile ceasefire without a formal deal, with tensions simmering, sporadic flare-ups, and oil near $100.

Indefinite Extension

The US and Iran were discussing returning to talks in Islamabad on the eve of the two-week ceasefire deadline. Trump warned he was unlikely to extend the truce and would resume bombing Iran if they failed to show. Tehran held its line: no talks while the US blockade remained.

That pointed to a return to hostilities unless someone blinked. Trump blinked first. The political cost of war was rising for the US, as was its economic toll. The prospects for a win were becoming more elusive by the day. Tehran’s goal remains the same: survival and imposing a global cost for the war. It can’t afford to blink, and it didn’t.

What does this mean for the war? There’s no deal so there’s no lasting peace. There’s no high-intensity war either. Instead, the war may be settling into a prolonged middle ground:

No formal end to the hostilities between the US/Israel and Iran because the underlying differences remain unresolved. These include issues such as Iran’s nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz, and Lebanon.
Escalation, on the other hand, is costly. It draws the US deeper into a conflict it doesn’t want and more entrenched in a region it would prefer not to focus on. Tehran, weakened but also emboldened, will hold the Strait of Hormuz and the global economy hostage. And Arab Gulf states are likely to face renewed attacks.

Today's show features:

Ray Takeyh, Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies at Council of Foreign Relations
Seth Jones, President of Defense and Security Department at CSIS on Defense and Counterterrorism measures in Iran War
Jay Hatfield, CEO and CIO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors
Seth Fiegerman, Bloomberg AI Editor on SpaceX Has Deal for Right to Acquire Cursor for $60 Billion
Michael Stivala, President & CEO at Suburban Propane

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No Peace, No War — the New US-Iran Normal

Bloomberg Businessweek

No Peace, No War — the New US-Iran Normal