Written very quickly for the Inkhaven Residency.

As I take the time to reflect on the state of AI Safety in early 2026, one question feels unavoidable: have we, as the AI Safety community, already lost? That is, have we passed the point of no return, after which becomes both likely and effectively outside of our control?

Spoilers: as you might guess from Betteridge's Law, my answer to the headline question is no. But the salience of this question feels quite noteworthy to me nonetheless, and reflects a more negative outlook on the future.

Today I’ll start by explaining “the plan” as I understood it in 2024.

Tomorrow, I’ll explain why this question seems so salient to me, and why the situation looks much worse than when I was reflecting on this question two years ago in 2024. These reasons include: many of our governance and policy plans have failed (in ways that reflect poorly on my naivete in 2024), AI progress is going along more aggressively timelines, the community has largely went “all-in” on Anthropic and lost its independence, some of the more ambitious technical research plans have not paid out, and the political situation [...]

---

First published:
April 8th, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tjZWbmuCE9tjYQsrf/have-we-already-lost-part-1-the-plan-in-2024

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Have we already lost? Part 1: The Plan in 2024” by LawrenceC

LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“Have we already lost? Part 1: The Plan in 2024” by LawrenceC