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Will Trump’s ultimatum trigger a decisive strike on Iran—or force a last-minute deal?

As the clock ticks toward a U.S. deadline, Dan is joined by Nadav Eyal and Amit Segal to break down what comes next: a widening war, a strategic endgame, or something in between. They unpack competing military options, the role of Iran’s energy sector, the risks of escalation across the region, and whether regime change is a realistic outcome—or a dangerous illusion.

In this episode:

- Trump’s Ultimatum: What It Actually Means

- Extend, Escalate, or Strike: The U.S. Decision Tree

- Targeting Iran’s Energy Sector: Pressure vs. Shock

- Iran’s Leverage: Hormuz and Regional Retaliation

- Ground Forces on the Table? Risks and Realities

- No Deal, No Deterrence: Can This War End Cleanly?

- Hezbollah, Lebanon, and the Second Front

- Endgames: Regime Change, Containment, or Endless Conflict

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Link to Javad Zarif article on Foreign Affairs: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/how-iran-should-end-war-javad-zarif

Credits: Ilan Benatar, Adaam James Levin-Areddy, Brittany Cohen, Ava Weiner, Martin Huergo, Mariangeles Burgos, and Yuval Semo

Countdown to Trump’s 48-Hour Ultimatum — with Nadav Eyal and Amit Segal

Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

Countdown to Trump’s 48-Hour Ultimatum — with Nadav Eyal and Amit Segal