This episode explores the growing signs of a shift beneath the surface of the market, as technical indicators point to weakening momentum in equities and a potential change in leadership. Katie Stockton joins the show to break down what recent signals in the S&P 500, oil, gold, and sector rotation are telling us about where markets may be headed next.

We cover the implications of a new monthly MACD sell signal, the importance of market breadth and leadership, and how investors can interpret shifting trends across asset classes using a disciplined technical framework.

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Topics Covered:

Why a new monthly MACD sell signal may signal a longer, choppier market phase
The difference between fast corrections and slow grind bear phases
Key S&P 500 support levels and what a breakdown could mean for downside risk
How technical indicators help filter noise in headline-driven markets
The breakout in crude oil and what it signals about a potential new cycle
Whether sharp price moves are sustainable or likely to reverse
Understanding overbought and oversold conditions across different timeframes
Why mega-cap weakness is critical to overall market direction
The shift from growth to value and what it means for investors
Sector rotation trends and where leadership is emerging in 2025
What gold’s recent run and emerging weakness signal for safe haven assets
How a systematic, technical approach can help manage drawdowns and re-entry timing

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
04:18 S&P 500 momentum deterioration and MACD sell signal
08:09 Key support levels and downside scenarios for equities
12:53 Crude oil breakout and implications for a new cycle
16:01 What overbought and oversold really mean in practice
20:04 Mega-cap weakness and shifting market leadership
24:41 Concentration risk in investor portfolios
27:52 Value vs growth rotation and cycle dynamics
32:13 Market breadth and confirmation signals
36:19 Moving averages, death cross, and trend interpretation
39:56 Inside the TAC ETF and sector rotation strategy
44:04 Gold trends and why consolidation may be next
47:00 Key signals to watch going forward

The Signal Before the Spike | Katie Stockton on What the Charts Tell Us About What Comes Next

Excess Returns

The Signal Before the Spike | Katie Stockton on What the Charts Tell Us About What Comes Next