In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Larry Swedroe to break down one of the most debated topics in markets today: private credit. Larry walks through what private credit actually is, why it has grown so rapidly since 2008, and where he believes the biggest misconceptions and risks are for investors.

We dig into the structure of the market, how liquidity and credit risk really work beneath the surface, and why the media narrative around private credit may be overstating systemic risks. We also explore how investors should think about diversification, illiquidity premiums, and the potential impact of AI on credit markets and software lending.

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Topics covered

What private credit is and how it evolved after the 2008 financial crisis
Why private credit is not a single asset class and how risk varies across structures
The three key risks in private credit: credit risk, liquidity risk, and concentration risk
How illiquidity premiums work and why they can be a major source of return
Differences between private credit funds, BDCs, and open architecture platforms
Why diversification is critical and how concentration risk can be hidden
How rising interest rates are impacting defaults and underwriting standards
Media misconceptions around defaults, losses, and valuation marks in private credit
The real systemic risk of private credit vs the banking system
How liquidity actually works in interval funds and stress scenarios
What happens in a recession and how private credit compares to equities and high yield bonds
The role of software lending and how AI disruption could impact credit portfolios
How to evaluate private credit managers including scale, underwriting, and leverage
The importance of credit culture and avoiding “reach for yield” behavior
Whether private credit should be accessible to retail investors and the risks involved
The concept of earning “beta” in private credit vs trying to pick winning managers
AI’s growing role in investment research and the risks of overfitting and false signals

Timestamps
00:00 Why private credit is less risky than banks for systemic stability
01:12 Introduction and episode overview
03:00 What private credit is and how it grew after 2008
05:21 Who provides capital to private credit funds
07:11 Why private credit is not a monolithic asset class
08:00 The three key risks in private credit
09:00 Illiquidity premium and why it can be a “near free lunch”
12:00 Credit risk and importance of senior secured lending
16:00 Concentration risk and why diversification matters
18:11 Are defaults rising and what the data actually shows
21:00 Media narratives vs actual credit losses
23:50 Could private credit cause a financial crisis
25:50 How to analyze portfolios and why most investors can’t
28:44 Should investors think about indexing private credit
30:12 Can private credit work for retail investors
32:26 Mass redemption risk and liquidity stress scenarios
36:00 Sources of liquidity inside private credit funds
41:37 Software lending and AI disruption risk
47:00 Private equity valuations and spillover into credit risk
49:43 Key checklist for evaluating private credit investments
56:30 How AI is changing financial research and investing

The Private Credit Apocalypse That Isn’t Coming | Larry Swedroe Dispels the Myths

Excess Returns

The Private Credit Apocalypse That Isn’t Coming | Larry Swedroe Dispels the Myths