Technological Revolutions and The Shape of Tomorrow. Carlota Perez for Baillie Gifford. May 2020

Technological revolutions occur in successive surges of transformation, each following a distinct cycle of installation, financial bubble, and eventual deployment. History reveals five major revolutions over the past 240 years, with the current information technology and telecommunications era still awaiting its full golden age. While the present turning point is marked by structural unemployment, inequality, and social unrest, these challenges are not technologically determined but are consequences of outdated socio-political frameworks. By leveraging ICT to drive "smart green growth"—prioritizing sustainable infrastructure, circular economies, and human-centered services—society can transition toward a more equitable future. Implementing proactive policies like intelligent taxation and universal basic income will be critical to ensuring that the wealth generated by these advancements lifts all boats, effectively turning the current period of instability into a period of widespread prosperity.