Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes

The podcast analyzes current market trends and specific stocks, focusing on opportunities amidst volatility. It emphasizes a long-term investment strategy, highlighting the potential for a "rip your face off rally" due to record hedging and underweight consumer discretionary exposure. Hayes identifies consumer discretionary stocks like VF Corp and Disney as undervalued. He also discusses National Oil Well Varco and Comstock Resources, and points to emerging markets and international equities as areas for potential outperformance. Hayes advises against following the crowd into overbought sectors like oil, and stresses the importance of buying fundamentally sound businesses at discounted prices, ignoring short-term market noise.

Outlines

Part 1: Introduction and Personal Updates

Part 2: Macro Outlook and Economic Analysis

Part 3: Sector Opportunities and Stock Analysis

Part 4: Investment Philosophy and Contrarian Indicators

Part 5: Deep Dives: Tech, Energy, and Global Trends

Part 6: Sentiment Surveys and Corporate Updates

Part 7: Ask Me Anything: Portfolio Management

Part 8: Ask Me Anything: Rapid Fire Stock Reviews

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Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - podcast - Episode 335 - March 19, 2026

Part 1: Introduction and Personal Updates

00:00Introduction to Hedge Fund Tips and Family Updates

Introduction to Hedge Fund Tips and Family Updates

Part 2: Macro Outlook and Economic Analysis

02:10Stagflation Concerns and Market Outlook with Stu Varney

Stagflation Concerns and Market Outlook with Stu Varney

04:06Analyzing Market Trends: Yields, Energy, and S&P 500 Choppiness

Analyzing Market Trends: Yields, Energy, and S&P 500 Choppiness

06:20Long-Term Market Cycles and Demographic Spending Trends

Long-Term Market Cycles and Demographic Spending Trends

08:17Impact of Market Volatility on Underlying Businesses and AI Disintermediation

Impact of Market Volatility on Underlying Businesses and AI Disintermediation

Part 3: Sector Opportunities and Stock Analysis

10:08Stock Analysis: Dentsply Sirona, VF Corp, and Consumer Discretionary Opportunities

Stock Analysis: Dentsply Sirona, VF Corp, and Consumer Discretionary Opportunities

12:10Market Dislocations and Long-Term Investment Strategies

Market Dislocations and Long-Term Investment Strategies

14:31Stock Picks: QXO, Papa John's, PayPal, and Pfizer

Stock Picks: QXO, Papa John's, PayPal, and Pfizer

16:24Portfolio Strategy: Cyclical Plays, International Outperformance, and Value over Growth

Portfolio Strategy: Cyclical Plays, International Outperformance, and Value over Growth

17:40Stock Updates: Hormel, GXO Logistics, and Consumer Discretionary Plays

Stock Updates: Hormel, GXO Logistics, and Consumer Discretionary Plays

19:07Stock Analysis: Etsy, Estee Lauder, Disney, and Diageo

Stock Analysis: Etsy, Estee Lauder, Disney, and Diageo

21:34Stock Updates: Comstock Resources, Cooper Standard, and Crown Castle

Stock Updates: Comstock Resources, Cooper Standard, and Crown Castle

Part 4: Investment Philosophy and Contrarian Indicators

23:52Investment Philosophy: Cyclical Recoveries and Durable Fundamentals

Investment Philosophy: Cyclical Recoveries and Durable Fundamentals

25:39Market Volatility and Contrarian Indicators

Market Volatility and Contrarian Indicators

27:08Contrarian Indicators: Put Skew, Asset Manager Positioning, and Media Narratives

Contrarian Indicators: Put Skew, Asset Manager Positioning, and Media Narratives

29:36Consumer Discretionary Opportunities and Investment Strategy

Consumer Discretionary Opportunities and Investment Strategy

Part 5: Deep Dives: Tech, Energy, and Global Trends

30:33Stock Picks: VF Corp and Disney

Stock Picks: VF Corp and Disney

32:31Alibaba's AI Potential and Hedge Fund Oil Bets

Alibaba's AI Potential and Hedge Fund Oil Bets

33:24Market Breakouts and Correction Analysis

Market Breakouts and Correction Analysis

34:55Oversold Conditions and Market Outlook

Oversold Conditions and Market Outlook

36:08Stock Analysis: PayPal and Housing Market Trends

Stock Analysis: PayPal and Housing Market Trends

37:40ETF Flows, Put Skew, and Economic Cycle Indicators

ETF Flows, Put Skew, and Economic Cycle Indicators

39:22Fed's Quantitative Easing and Market Impact

Fed's Quantitative Easing and Market Impact

40:48Private Equity Concerns and Market Opportunities

Private Equity Concerns and Market Opportunities

42:02Geopolitical Risk and Market Sentiment

Geopolitical Risk and Market Sentiment

43:53Market Themes: Energy, Emerging Markets, and International Outperformance

Market Themes: Energy, Emerging Markets, and International Outperformance

45:32International vs. US Equities: A Long-Term Cycle Shift

International vs. US Equities: A Long-Term Cycle Shift

47:06Emerging Markets: Growth and Valuation Opportunities

Emerging Markets: Growth and Valuation Opportunities

Part 6: Sentiment Surveys and Corporate Updates

48:50Fund Manager Sentiment and Market Conditions

Fund Manager Sentiment and Market Conditions

50:29Market Indicators and Investment Strategy

Market Indicators and Investment Strategy

52:46Alibaba's Revenue and AI Business

Alibaba's Revenue and AI Business

54:03Market News and Economic Indicators

Market News and Economic Indicators

55:23Housing Market and Investment Conviction

Housing Market and Investment Conviction

57:31Market Sentiment and Fund Manager Survey

Market Sentiment and Fund Manager Survey

59:44National Oil Well Varco: A Pick-and-Shovel Play in the Energy Sector

National Oil Well Varco: A Pick-and-Shovel Play in the Energy Sector

1:02:52NOV's Tailwinds and Shareholder Rewards

NOV's Tailwinds and Shareholder Rewards