MacroVoices #524 Simon White: War + Inflation = More Inflation

The Macro Voices podcast explores the potential for secular inflation amid the Iran conflict and shifts in global markets. Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White draws parallels to the 1970s stagflation, noting that inflation is currently mispriced and complacent market behavior. He highlights the risk of a food price shock, exacerbated by disruptions to fertilizer supplies, potentially mirroring the 1970s when food inflation outpaced energy's impact on CPI. Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston discusses the unexpected near-total halt of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, attributing it to market expectations of a quick resolution rather than physical barriers. Both guests suggest that a protracted conflict could trigger significant economic disruption, with Johnston warning of potential $200 crude oil and severe consequences for emerging markets.