Dan Ivascyn: Beyond the Base Case in 2026

PIMCO's podcast "Accrued Interest" features an interview with Group CIO Dan Ivascyn, focusing on the investment landscape for 2026. Ivascyn anticipates positive growth, particularly in the U.S. during the first half of the year, driven by infrastructure investments and the delayed impact of tax cuts, but cautions that current market valuations already reflect this optimism. The conversation highlights a K-shaped economic dynamic, with differentiation among households, corporations, and even countries, which favors active asset management. Ivascyn expresses a preference for high-quality global opportunities over corporate credit, citing concerns about complacency and deteriorating underwriting quality. He also advises investors to consider extending maturities and diversifying globally to mitigate risks associated with holding excessive cash.