Mark and Marisa are joined once again by colleagues Chris Lafakis and Juan Pablo Fuentes to discuss the past week’s developments in the Middle East and whether the forecast has changed as a result. Matt Colyar joins to review the week’s release of inflation data, which show stickiness in inflation prior to the $40 jump in oil prices since the start of the year. After a review of weak reports on GDP, spending and confidence, Chris and Juan Pablo discuss how the jump in oil prices and the unprecedented supply shock will affect consumer spending and growth. The group posits their forecasts for how and when the conflict may end.

Guests: Matt Colyar, Chris Lafakis and Juan Pablo Fuentes

For a deeper dive on AI and the macroeconomy, see our new paper, The Macroeconomic Consequences of Artificial Intelligence, where we model four potential economic paths over the next decade. We also walk through the scenarios in a companion webinar available now on-demand.
Read the paper: https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=2B555C90-1118-4A49-BDAA-5C0A99F83A9E&app=download
Watch the webinar: https://bit.ly/3OF6dn9

Email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com for more info about the Moody's Summit '26 Conference in San Diego

Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics

Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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100 Oil...and Counting

Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

100 Oil...and Counting