Ray Wang on How AI Is Causing DRAM Prices to Surge | Odd Lots

The rapid expansion of AI infrastructure is driving a severe global shortage of memory chips, particularly High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and commodity DRAM. As AI training and inference workloads consume unprecedented amounts of data, memory suppliers are prioritizing these high-margin AI components, effectively crowding out supply for consumer electronics like PCs and gaming consoles. Ray Wang, an analyst at Semianalysis, highlights that this structural shift is exacerbated by limited clean room capacity and the complex manufacturing requirements of HBM. While historical memory cycles typically lasted 15 to 18 months, the current AI-driven demand surge suggests a prolonged four-year cycle, with supply-demand imbalances expected to persist through 2027. This shift forces manufacturers to navigate constrained wafer allocations, leading to significant price volatility and potential long-term supply chain disruptions across the broader technology sector.