Rory Johnston on How Oil Could Surge to Over $200 a Barrel | Odd Lots

The podcast explores the potential for a major oil shock resulting from conflict in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, explains that the oil market, despite its resilience, is unprepared for a prolonged Strait closure, potentially leading to $200+ per barrel prices. Johnston highlights that product markets, like jet fuel, are experiencing immediate impacts as refineries preemptively reduce activity due to feedstock concerns. The conversation covers the pros and cons of strategic stockpile releases, with Johnston arguing for their use but noting limitations in flow rate. The discussion also examines the potential for demand destruction in lower-income countries and the surprising benefit to Russia as a swing producer amid the crisis.