Ian Bremmer sits down with Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace to examine Iran’s precarious position on the global stage and the forces shaping its future.

At the heart of the discussion is the regime’s internal fragility. Sadjadpour explains that many inside Iran, including elements of the Revolutionary Guards, are “waiting for Ayatollah Khamenei to die,” while the status quo continues largely unchallenged because the risks of internal revolt are too high. Almost everyone inside both the society and the regime understands that “this status quo is not tenable,” he says.

The conversation also explores Iran’s isolation in the international arena. While 90% of its oil goes to China at deep discounts, Sadjadpour points out that Chinese and Russian interests in Iran diverge sharply. Despite the pressures at home and abroad, Sadjadpour argues that many ordinary Iranians recognize that reconciliation with the United States is essential if the country is ever to realize its enormous potential.

From leadership uncertainty to global isolation, Bremmer and Sadjadpour explore the delicate balance Iran faces today—and the choices that will determine its path forward.

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Iran on the brink with Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour

GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Iran on the brink with Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour