Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes

Tom Hayes delivers his weekly hedge fund tips, starting with family updates and travels. He analyzes market trends, focusing on the potential for a counter-trend rally in oversold software stocks, though he advises selling into strength due to eroded pricing power from AI. Hayes favors defensives like consumer staples, highlighting Diageo and Hormel, and expresses concerns over the MAG 7's increasing CapEx. He also touches on the potential impact of Trump's tariffs and the importance of consumer confidence, advocating for policies to lower mortgage rates. Throughout the podcast, Hayes answers questions from listeners, providing his opinion on a variety of stocks, and providing his general investment strategies.

Outlines

Part 1: Personal Updates and Market Context

Part 2: Core Stock Analysis and Turnaround Stories

Part 3: Macro Trends, Capital Markets, and AI

Part 4: Deep Dives into Defensive and Tech Sectors

Part 5: Investment Philosophy and PayPal Deep Dive

Part 6: Market Skepticism and Global Insights

Part 7: S&P 500 Dynamics and Small Caps

Part 8: Corporate Earnings and Specific Equities

Part 9: Rapid Fire Stock Evaluations and Q&A

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Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - podcast - Episode 332 - February 26, 2026

Part 1: Personal Updates and Market Context

00:00Family Ski Trip to Whistler, Water Polo Games, and New York Stock Exchange Visit

Family Ski Trip to Whistler, Water Polo Games, and New York Stock Exchange Visit

04:14Software Sector's Violent Counter Trend Rally and Defensive Stocks Outperformance

Software Sector's Violent Counter Trend Rally and Defensive Stocks Outperformance

Part 2: Core Stock Analysis and Turnaround Stories

07:32PayPal's Misunderstood Ad Business and Densply Sirona as a Turnaround Story

PayPal's Misunderstood Ad Business and Densply Sirona as a Turnaround Story

11:02Lowering Mortgage Rates and Intel's Potential in the AI Computing Power Landscape

Lowering Mortgage Rates and Intel's Potential in the AI Computing Power Landscape

13:00Home Depot's Earnings, Keurig Dr. Pepper's Flavors, and Hims & Hers' Regulatory Headaches

Home Depot's Earnings, Keurig Dr. Pepper's Flavors, and Hims & Hers' Regulatory Headaches

14:45Diageo and Hormel: Defensive Stock Picks with High Dividend Yields

Diageo and Hormel: Defensive Stock Picks with High Dividend Yields

Part 3: Macro Trends, Capital Markets, and AI

16:51Retirement Accounts and Capital Markets: A Bullish Outlook

Retirement Accounts and Capital Markets: A Bullish Outlook

18:24Compounding, Purchasing Power, and the Importance of Capital Markets

Compounding, Purchasing Power, and the Importance of Capital Markets

20:59Consumer Confidence, Natural Gas, and the AI Trade

Consumer Confidence, Natural Gas, and the AI Trade

23:30Violent Countertrend Rally in Software and the Energy Bottleneck in AI

Violent Countertrend Rally in Software and the Energy Bottleneck in AI

25:17Recognizing Heroes and the Impact of Bank Compliance Costs

Recognizing Heroes and the Impact of Bank Compliance Costs

27:31Tariff Impacts and Economic Growth: A De Minimis Concern

Tariff Impacts and Economic Growth: A De Minimis Concern

29:01Main Street vs. Wall Street: Economic Growth and Hyperscaler Pullback

Main Street vs. Wall Street: Economic Growth and Hyperscaler Pullback

Part 4: Deep Dives into Defensive and Tech Sectors

31:32Defensive Stocks: Estee Lauder and Densply Sirona

Defensive Stocks: Estee Lauder and Densply Sirona

33:50Tariffs and Economic Data: A Non-Issue with Mixed Signals

Tariffs and Economic Data: A Non-Issue with Mixed Signals

35:32Software Oversold and MAG7 CapEx Concerns

Software Oversold and MAG7 CapEx Concerns

37:36NVIDIA's CapEx and the Debasement Trade

NVIDIA's CapEx and the Debasement Trade

39:23Economic Outlook and Sector Preferences

Economic Outlook and Sector Preferences

Part 5: Investment Philosophy and PayPal Deep Dive

41:30Charlie Munger's Wisdom and Taking Advantage of Opportunities

Charlie Munger's Wisdom and Taking Advantage of Opportunities

42:25Thanking the Audience and Stripe's Potential Takeover of PayPal

Thanking the Audience and Stripe's Potential Takeover of PayPal

45:35PayPal's Ad Business and the Magic of Buybacks

PayPal's Ad Business and the Magic of Buybacks

47:10PayPal's Defense Against Unwarranted Takeovers and Lowering Basis

PayPal's Defense Against Unwarranted Takeovers and Lowering Basis

48:48Cooper Standard's Refinancing and Software Stock Re-Rating

Cooper Standard's Refinancing and Software Stock Re-Rating

51:13Software Stocks and AI Hyperscalers

Software Stocks and AI Hyperscalers

Part 6: Market Skepticism and Global Insights

52:35Private Credit: A Scam with a Bailout

Private Credit: A Scam with a Bailout

54:59Private Equity: A Mark-to-Market Scam

Private Equity: A Mark-to-Market Scam

56:14PayPal's Buyout Opportunity and the Ad Business

PayPal's Buyout Opportunity and the Ad Business

58:00PayPal's Data and the Future of Active Management

PayPal's Data and the Future of Active Management

1:00:02Tom Brady and Canada Goose and US Jobs Growth

Tom Brady and Canada Goose and US Jobs Growth

1:01:11CIOs Telling CEOs to Slow CapEx and Market Timing

CIOs Telling CEOs to Slow CapEx and Market Timing

1:02:30S&P Revisions and the Weaker Dollar

S&P Revisions and the Weaker Dollar

Part 7: S&P 500 Dynamics and Small Caps

1:04:09S&P 493 Outperforming and the Henry Singleton Playbook

S&P 493 Outperforming and the Henry Singleton Playbook

1:05:31MAG 7 Decline and Defensives vs Cyclicals

MAG 7 Decline and Defensives vs Cyclicals

1:07:41S&P Index and Consumer Confidence

S&P Index and Consumer Confidence

1:09:13Stock Pickers Market and Hedge Fund Degrossing

Stock Pickers Market and Hedge Fund Degrossing

1:11:12Software Rally and Credit Default Swaps