Copper, chaos and contrarian thinking with David Lilley, Drakewood Capital management

Copper markets are undergoing a fundamental shift from "just-in-time" efficiency to "just-in-case" resilience, driven by geopolitical fragmentation and the strategic necessity of securing critical minerals. David Lilley, a veteran copper trader and CIO of Drakewood Capital Management, argues that this transition, coupled with the rise of AI and robotics, elevates raw materials to the primary constraint on global production. While historical market cycles were dictated by manufacturing capacity, future growth will be limited by access to energy and essential metals like copper and tungsten. The U.S. government’s strategic use of tariff ambiguity has effectively built a cost-free inventory, distorting short-term supply flows. Ultimately, copper is evolving into a hybrid asset, functioning as both an essential industrial input and a store of value, as investors increasingly seek tangible assets independent of sovereign debt systems.