Bonus: Is There an Endgame in Ukraine?

The conversation centers on the Russia-Ukraine war as it enters its fifth year, assessing the battlefield dynamics, diplomatic efforts, and future prospects for both sides. Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argues that Russia's battlefield advantages have not been decisive and time is increasingly not on Moscow's side. Despite Russia's advantages in material and manpower, 2025 was not a successful year for the Russian military, with advances mainly occurring along axes not prioritized. Putin's miscalculations include the belief that pressure would force a Ukrainian collapse and that diplomacy could maneuver the U.S. out of the war. Kofman suggests Ukraine's most optimistic scenario involves making the war futile for Russia by stabilizing the front, increasing Russian casualties, and regaining drone engagement zone superiority.