Day 1,453.

Today, amid fresh Russian bombardments and reports of Ukrainian counter-operations, we step back to assess the broader strategic picture on the battlefield – and ask what 2026 could bring if peace talks collapse. We then report from the Munich Security Conference, where American voices, including US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, set out competing visions for US involvement in Europe, and Belarus warned about Moscow’s nuclear expansion. Then we cover President Zelensky’s candid remarks, and examine the extraordinary claims from British intelligence that Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was killed with a toxin derived from a frog on the orders of Vladimir Putin.

Contributors

Francis Dearnley (Executive Editor for Audio). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Venetia Rainey (Co-host Battle Lines podcast). @venetiarainey on X.

Adélie Pojzman-Pontay (Journalist and Producer). @adeliepjz on X.

Rozina Sabur (National Security Editor). @RozinaSabur on X.

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Each week, Dom Nicholls and Francis Dearnley answer your questions, provide recommended reading, and give exclusive analysis and behind-the-scenes insights – plus maps of the frontlines and diagrams of weapons to complement our daily reporting. It’s free for everyone, including non-subscribers.

CONTENT REFERENCED:

Putin’s frog poison hit on Navalny reveals his secret chemical weapons (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/14/russia-killed-navalny-with-frog-poison-britain-reveals/

Kim opens new neighbourhood for families of soldiers killed in Ukraine (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/16/kim-opens-neighbourhood-families-soldiers-killed-ukraine/

Putin ‘moving nuclear missiles’ to EU border (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/15/putin-moving-nuclear-missiles-to-eu-border/

Nato will strike ‘deep inside Russia’ if Putin hits Baltics (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/16/nato-air-strikes-deep-in-russia-if-putin-hits-baltics/

Poland considers building nuclear weapons (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/16/poland-considers-building-nuclear-weapons-russia/

Ukraine’s War of Endurance – The Fight for Advantage in the Conflict’s Fifth Year (Michael Kofman in Foreign Affairs):

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/ukraines-war-endurance

Ukraine struck $100 million Russian Nebo-U radar system in occupied Crimea, General Staff claims (Kyiv Independent):

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-says-it-struck-100-million-russian-nebo-u-radar-system-in-occupied-crimea/

Ukraine’s survival still an ‘open question’, Kyiv mayor warns (Financial Times):

https://www.ft.com/content/a140cba5-d36c-47b7-95cb-57218fa5874c

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Putin ‘moving nuclear missiles’ to EU border & frog poison hit on Navalny reveals secret chemical weapons

Ukraine: The Latest

Putin ‘moving nuclear missiles’ to EU border & frog poison hit on Navalny reveals secret chemical weapons