America’s estimated greenhouse gas emissions rose by 2.4% last year — which is a big deal since they had been steady or falling in 2023 and 2024. More ominously, U.S. emissions grew faster than our gross domestic product last year, suggesting that the economy got less efficient from a climate pollution perspective.

Is this Trump’s fault? The AI boom’s? Or was it a weird fluke? In this week’s Shift Key episode, Rob talks to Ben King, a climate and energy director at the Rhodium Group, about why U.S. emissions grew and what it says about the underlying structure of the American economy. They talk about the power grid, the natural gas system, and whether industry is going to overtake other emissions drivers as once thought.

Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University. Jesse is off this week.

Mentioned:

Rhodium Group: Preliminary US Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimates for 2025

Rob on Rhodium’s 2023 emissions report

And here’s Rhodium’s 2024 emissions report

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This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …

Heatmap Pro brings all of our research, reporting, and insights down to the local level. The software platform tracks all local opposition to clean energy and data centers, forecasts community sentiment, and guides data-driven engagement campaigns. Book a demo today to see the premier intelligence platform for project permitting and community engagement.

Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.

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Why America’s Climate Emissions Surged in 2025

Shift Key with Robinson Meyer

Why America’s Climate Emissions Surged in 2025