MacroVoices #515 Rory Johnston: Why Trump is Keeping The Oil Price High

The conversation centers on the oil market, particularly examining President Trump's influence on prices through sanctions and geopolitical strategies. Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, argues that Trump's policies, especially sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, have paradoxically created supply bottlenecks, keeping prices higher than they would be otherwise. The discussion explores Venezuela's oil production potential under a Trump-led intervention, with estimates suggesting a slow recovery of about one million barrels per day over three years, even with substantial investment. The two also consider the potential for using Venezuelan oil to replenish the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and debate whether Trump's actions are part of a calculated strategy or simply reactive. The conversation concludes with a technical analysis of WTI crude oil's forward curve and trading opportunities.