The CSIS Indo-Pacific Forecast 2026 examines political and security dynamics involving allies and partners. Panelists assess the likelihood of various leaders gaining domestic power, highlighting Japan's potential snap election and the implications for regional geopolitics. Discussions cover advancements in U.S. security cooperation, particularly with Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, while noting the plateau in U.S.-India relations. The panel debates the momentum of trilateral frameworks like U.S.-Japan-Korea versus AUKUS, and evaluates potential responses from Asian allies to U.S. actions in Venezuela. The panel also analyzes the potential for hedging against perceived U.S. retrenchment, with a focus on India and South Korea.
Part 1: Introduction, Strategic Context Indo-Pacific Forecast 2026: Strategic and Economic Interests at Stake
Interactive Session Overview and Introduction of Panelists
Part 2: Regional Political Dynamics Political Dynamics in Japan: Snap Election and Prime Minister's Popularity
India's Political Landscape: Modi's Third Term and Upcoming State Elections
South Korean Politics: Lee Jae Myung's Potential and Local Elections
Australian Politics: Albanese's Strong and Weakened Position
Southeast Asian Politics: Marcos' Corruption Scandal and Elections in Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam
Part 3: Security Cooperation, Alliances Advancements in U.S. Security Cooperation: Japan, Philippines, South Korea Lead
Trilateral Cooperation: U.S., Japan, South Korea Generate Most Momentum
South Korea's Commitment to the U.S. Alliance and Trilateralism
AUKUS and U.S.-Japan-Australia: Momentum in Security and Strategy
The Squad: Evolving Dynamics in Maritime Cooperation
The Quad: Life Support and the Need for Revival
Part 4: U.S. Foreign Policy, Global Impact Strategic Implications of U.S. Operation in Venezuela: Australian Perspectives
U.S. Actions in Venezuela: Unpredictability and Impact on Rules-Based Order
Impact of U.S. Foreign Policy on India and Southeast Asia
Hedging Against U.S. Retrenchment: India's Approach
South Korea's Choice: Drawing Closer to the U.S.
Australia's Concerns and Diversification of Partnerships
Part 5: Economic Trends, Trade Policy Economic Trends in the Indo-Pacific: Introduction to the Panel
Exceeding Growth Expectations: India and Malaysia Lead
U.S. Policy and AI: Shaping Growth Expectations
Malaysia's Potential: Data Centers, Manufacturing, and Chips Packaging
China's Growth: Exports and Potential Tariffs
Japan's Economic Growth: Geopolitical Questions and China Trade
Part 6: U.S.-China Economic Competition U.S. Economic Policy Towards China: Decoupling and Stabilization
Instability and the U.S.-China Relationship
China's Economic Dominance and the Potential for Stability
Joint Action with Trade Partners: A Missing Element
Potential Escalation and the Rules-Based Order
Stabilization and Paralysis: Core Issues Unaddressed
U.S. Leverage and Economic Detente
Scattershot Approach and Lack of Coordination
Part 7: Technology, Minerals, Tariffs Dominating the Debate: Critical Minerals
Semiconductors and Export Controls
Tech Competition: Acceleration Technologies and Defending Networks
Domestic Debate: Semiconductors vs. Critical Minerals
AI as the Measure of Tech Competition
U.S. Tariff Policy: Unraveling After Exemptions
Skepticism About Tariff Policy Changes
The Courts and Sectoral Tariffs
Stability and the Use of Section 122
Shuffling Around and Sectoral Tariffs
Part 8: China, Russia, North Korea Nexus Regional Security Dynamics: China's Impact
China's Assertiveness and U.S. Alliances
Escalating Chinese Activity in the South China Sea and Against Japan
North Korea: Calibrating Behavior and the U.S. Commitment
Russia's Influence: Channelled Through China
China's Support for Russia and the War in Ukraine
China's Military Modernization and the Risk of Accidental Conflict
Political Considerations and the Risk in 2027
U.S. Expert Assessments on China and Taiwan
Benchmarking North Korea and China
Building Risk Profile and Accidental Conflict
Accidental Escalation and Lack of Communication
Part 9: Future Outlook, Deterrence Progress in Relationships: North Korea-Russia
China-Russia: Limitations and Anniversary
China's Trade with Russia and Kim Jong-un's Intentions
Bilateral Cooperation and the Strategic Context
Russia as a Key Connector
China's Anxieties and the Erosion of Traditional Role
China's Concerns and the Erosion of Traditional Role
China and North Korea: A Delta in the Relationship
China's Incentives and the U.S., Japan, ROK Triangular Relations
Beijing's Stance and Reputational Risk
U.S. Efforts to Bolster Deterrence: Deceleration
Disappointment and the Asia Pivot
Deterrence Perspective and the Demonstration of Capabilities
U.S. Strategy and the China-Russia Alliance
Venezuela and the Energy Dimension
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