2026 trends: Gas turbines, Texas’ load queue and China electrifies

Global energy and decarbonization trends reveal a stark divergence in electrification, with China’s share of final energy from electricity rising from 3% to 30% since 1970, while the United States remains stagnant at approximately 22%. Electricity expenditure as a percentage of global GDP remains remarkably range-bound between 3% and 4%, contrasting sharply with the historical volatility of oil spending. Current infrastructure faces significant pressure, evidenced by a massive undersupply of gas turbines, where order books now exceed 100 gigawatts against a 60-gigawatt production capacity. Meanwhile, the Texas interconnection queue has surged to 226 gigawatts, driven by speculative data center development. Analyst and Halcyon co-founder Nat Bullard highlights these shifts, noting that while data centers currently represent only 8% of global electricity demand growth, their influence on grid planning and capital expenditure is rapidly escalating.