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It’s no longer just about the cost of living. Protests in Iran entering their third week despite evidence of a ferocious crackdown and the shutting of the Internet.

Each time, the context differs but the under-sanctions Islamic Republic has always outlasted previous movements. Why should this one be any different?

Among the variables, there’s maximum pressure from the US that culminated in support for Israel’s 12-day bombing campaign last summer and extends to fresh threats of retribution. In the past, like during the 2009 Green Movement, the West’s been hesitant to further squeeze a nation where it’s ordinary citizens who bear the brunt of sanctions. We’ll ask if Europe wants to also up the pressure.

And there’s always the “nothing to lose” factor. One of the clear signs that revolution was afoot in 1979 was that elites no longer supported the Shah. Is it a sign that this time it started with Tehran Grand Bazaar merchants fed up with inflation? Back then, the revolution had a face - Ayatollah Khomeini. In 2026, how far could a leaderless movement go?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Daniel Whittington, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente

Blackout over Iran: Can the regime keep a lid on the nationwide uprising?

The Debate

Blackout over Iran: Can the regime keep a lid on the nationwide uprising?