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Executive Summary

The chance of H5N1 or one of its descendants causing a pandemic is slim, but the impact would probably be more severe than COVID-19
A reasonable forecast that H5N1 causes a pandemic as bad as or worse than COVID-19 beginning in the next year is ~4%, which means the expected cost in terms of potential harms to the U.S. is at least $640 billion
The federal government can reduce that risk by:
- Scaling up testing & sequencing
- Banning mink farms
- Not pursuing H5N1 gain-of-function research
- Laying the groundwork for mass production of an H5N1 vaccine
- Investing in general pandemic prevention

Background

Though COVID-19 is often referred to as a “once-in-a-century event,” this expression should not be taken literally. Another COVID-like pandemic at some point is almost inevitable, and the chances of a devastating pandemic materializing in any given year are low but constant. Recently, media figures have raised concerns that the highly pathogenic avian [...]

Original text
https://progress.institute/what-are-the-chances-an-h5n1-pandemic-is-worse-than-covid

First published
14 February 2023

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What Are the Odds H5N1 Is Worse Than COVID-19

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What Are the Odds H5N1 Is Worse Than COVID-19