31 Dec 2025
1h 2m

IL44: From AI Hype to Transformative AGI ft. Aubrie Pagano

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Top Traders Unplugged

In this episode of Top Traders Unplugged, hosted by Kevin Coldiron, Aubrie Pagano, a general partner at Alpaca VC, discusses her white paper on the transition to artificial general intelligence (AGI) and its potential impact on society and the economy. Aubrie outlines the blockers to achieving AGI's full economic potential, including energy abundance, foundational industry resilience, and agent-human coordination. She also speculates on the future economic system, which she calls the Aquarius Economy, and the roles of different groups within it, such as nomads, gurus, and incels, and how these roles might present investment opportunities. The conversation explores both the technical and philosophical aspects of AI, as well as the potential for current AI applications to become extractive over time.

Outlines

Part 1: Introduction, Background

Part 2: AGI, Labor, Energy Blockers

Part 3: Foundational Industries, Data, Skilled Trades

Part 4: AI Coordination, Interoperability

Part 5: The Aquarius Economy, Future Superstructures

Part 6: Human Agency, Outlier Groups

Part 7: Investment Opportunities, AI Slop, Conclusion

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