Sarah C. M. Paine — Why dictators keep making the same fatal mistake

In this interview, Dwarkesh engages Sarah Paine, a strategy and policy professor at the Naval War College, in a wide-ranging discussion covering grand strategy, military history, and international relations. Paine defines grand strategy, emphasizing the importance of coordinating national power instruments, and uses historical examples like Japan in WWII to illustrate her points. The conversation explores Hitler's pivotal errors, the reasons for Russia's WWII robustness, and the success of post-WWII occupations in Germany and Japan versus those in Afghanistan and Iraq. They delve into the contingent nature of communism's global rise, the potential for conflict over Taiwan, and the balance between deterrence and provocation in international relations. Paine advocates for a maritime-based international order, highlighting the importance of international law, institutional collaboration, and understanding different perspectives to avoid strategic missteps.