Global Rates: Analyzing Eurex and US futures roll

Khagendra Gupta and Ipek Ozil discuss the drivers and outlook for the December-March U.S. and Eurex bond futures rollover. They address the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on data availability and its effect on short-term funding rates and positioning analysis for U.S. rolls, concluding with a neutral stance due to data uncertainty. For Eurex futures, Khagendra outlines their methodology for estimating positioning and provides views on various futures contracts, highlighting funding rates as a key driver for some and optionality or yield curve evolution for others. Ipek then shares her views on U.S. rolls, emphasizing optionality in longer contracts and potential bullish pressure from basis convergence.