John Mearsheimer - Israel Is Losing Its War With Iran

Israel faces a strategic crisis in its conflict with Iran, characterized by an inability to achieve its stated goals of eliminating nuclear capabilities, forcing regime change, or securing unconditional surrender. Despite mainstream narratives of Israeli dominance, the country lacks the military capacity to destroy hardened nuclear infrastructure like the Fordow facility or to sustain a long-term air campaign without significant American intervention. The reliance on U.S. air defenses to intercept ballistic missiles signals a failure of Israeli deterrence, leaving the domestic economy severely strained by closed ports and airports. Furthermore, the absence of evidence regarding an active Iranian nuclear weapons program renders the current push for escalation a geopolitical miscalculation. Benjamin Netanyahu’s pursuit of this war risks both his political survival and the stability of regional power dynamics, as the conflict increasingly exposes the limits of Israel’s military invincibility.