John Mearsheimer - Crucial Lessons From the War With Iran

The recent military escalation between Israel and Iran is driven primarily by a long-standing desire for regime change rather than a genuine existential threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program. International intelligence agencies and IAEA inspections confirm that Iran is not currently pursuing a nuclear weapon, despite its status as a threshold state capable of enriching uranium. By abandoning the JCPOA and engaging in direct military strikes, the U.S. and Israel have inadvertently incentivized Iran to pursue nuclear deterrence for survival. Deterrence theory suggests that nuclear-armed states, including North Korea and Pakistan, operate under rational constraints; however, the risk remains that Israel might preemptively use its own nuclear arsenal if it perceives Iran nearing a weapons capability. This cycle of antagonism, rooted in decades of intervention, risks further regional instability and potential nuclear escalation.