John Mearsheimer - Why Israel’s War on Iran Backfired

Military and geopolitical analyst John Mearsheimer argues that recent Israeli and U.S. bombing campaigns against Iran have backfired, failing to achieve regime change while simultaneously incentivizing Iran to pursue nuclear weapons for strategic survival. Rather than destabilizing the leadership, these attacks have triggered a "rally around the flag" effect, strengthening the position of hardliners and the Revolutionary Guards. Israel’s broader regional strategy seeks to fracture neighboring states—such as Syria, Iraq, and Iran—to maintain its status as the sole nuclear-armed power and regional hegemon. Historical evidence demonstrates that air power alone cannot precipitate regime change without a ground war, as seen in the NATO-led intervention in Libya. Consequently, Iran now faces a rational strategic imperative to acquire nuclear deterrents to prevent future foreign aggression, rendering the recent military escalation counterproductive to the stated goal of non-proliferation.