31 Oct 2025
1h 30m

Sarah Paine – How Russia sabotaged China's rise

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Dwarkesh Podcast

Sarah Paine discusses Russo-Chinese relations, focusing on historical patterns of continental empires, particularly Russia and China, and their interactions from the mid-19th century to the present. She highlights how both countries have historically destabilized neighbors and created buffer zones, leading to cycles of expansion and implosion. Paine details instances where Russia has derailed China's rise, including the Opium Wars, the Sino-Japanese War, and the Korean War, and also touches on the Sino-Soviet split, driven by ideological differences and territorial disputes. She argues that the current "bromance" between Russia and China is unlikely to last, given their conflicting interests and historical tensions, and concludes by emphasizing the importance of the West maintaining strong alliances and economic growth to manage these complex relationships effectively.

Outlines

Part 1: Introduction and Historical Context

Part 2: Derailing China's Rise

Part 3: Sino-Soviet Split and Power Reversal

Part 4: Current Dynamics and Future Prospects

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