Is Violent Societal Unrest Now Inevitable? | Peter Turchin

In this episode of Thoughtful Money, Adam Taggart interviews Peter Turchin, a complexity science expert, about the current state of Western society and the potential for social upheaval. Turchin discusses his theory of "cliodynamics," which uses historical data and mathematical models to analyze societal cycles and predict periods of instability. He identifies key drivers of social unrest, including popular immiseration, elite overproduction, and state fiscal fragility. Turchin argues that the United States is currently in a revolutionary situation, characterized by a transformative revolution led by counter-elites. He compares the US to other countries like France and Japan, assessing their relative levels of risk based on these factors, and emphasizes the need to address wealth inequality and improve the well-being of the majority to avoid potential violence.