In this week’s Macro Mondays James Todd is joined by Ed Hayden-Briffett and Will Cunliffe to unpack another turbulent week across global markets.

US equities hit fresh all-time highs as lower-than-expected CPI data fuels optimism - yet the rally is increasingly narrow, driven by speculative tech names with little to no earnings. Meanwhile, recession risks are flashing red, with UBS warning of a 93% probability and nearly a third of US states already contracting.

In Asia, China’s deflation deepens to its worst levels since 2004, while GDP growth slips below target and fixed-asset investment turns negative, underscoring the fragility of its recovery.

Commodities told a very different story: gold suffered its biggest single-day fall since 2013, silver followed suit, and the dollar rebounded as traders priced out rate cuts. Oil surged on renewed Russian sanctions, and volatility returned to precious metals markets.