Summary

Geodesic is going to use prediction markets to select their projects for MARS 4.0 and we need your help to make the markets run efficiently! Please read through the proposals, and then trade on the markets for the proposals you think might succeed or fail. We intend to choose the best proposals in two weeks!

Full proposals are in Google doc linked below, links to markets are in the section "The Projects".

Google Doc (similar content to this post + full proposal overviews).

Manifold post (similar content to this page).

Introduction

Geodesic is a new AI safety startup focused on research that is impactful for short AGI/ASI timelines. As part of this, we are committed to mentoring several projects as part of the Mentorship for Alignment Research Students program (MARS), run by the Cambridge AI Safety Hub (CAISH).

We are also excited about new ways to choose and [...]

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Outline:

(00:14) Summary

(00:51) Introduction

(02:17) Futarchy

(03:57) The Metrics

(05:45) The Projects

(06:18) Group 1: Cameron Tice

(07:03) Group 2: Puria Radmard & Shi Feng

(07:35) Group 3: Lennie Wells

(08:17) Go trade!

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First published:
September 30th, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wzTieM48mzYxLdYPi/ai-safety-research-futarchy-using-prediction-markets-to

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“AI Safety Research Futarchy: Using Prediction Markets to Choose Research Projects for MARS” by JasonBrown

LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“AI Safety Research Futarchy: Using Prediction Markets to Choose Research Projects for MARS” by JasonBrown