26 Aug 2025

Will Crypto Peak in 2025 or 2026? Onchain Data Signals | Michael Nadeau’s DeFi Report #5

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Bankless

Ryan and Michael Nadeau discuss the current state of the crypto market, focusing on whether the current cycle will follow the typical four-year pattern, topping in 2025, or extend into 2026 and beyond. They analyze global liquidity, forward PEs, bank lending standards, and the potential impact of Powell's recent speech and possible interest rate cuts. They also examine crypto-specific data, including the Bitcoin fear and greed index, long-term holder behavior, and DEX volumes, to assess market sentiment and potential future trends. Additionally, they delve into portfolio construction strategies, emphasizing the importance of core asset holdings, non-core longer-term investments, and high-beta risk-on assets, while maintaining a significant cash position to capitalize on market opportunities.

Outlines

Part 1: Market Dynamics and Liquidity

Part 2: Market Psychology and Cycle Analysis

Part 3: Portfolio Strategy

Part 4: Research and Conclusion

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