Nuclear Weapons, Ukraine, and Great-Power Competition

Kaiser Kuo moderates a panel discussion on nuclear weapons, Ukraine, and great-power competition, featuring experts Nickolas Roth, Mariana Budjeryn, Pan Yanliang, and Lily Wojtowicz. The discussion covers Russia's nuclear signaling and its impact on Western decision-making, the role of civilian nuclear facilities in the conflict, China's nuclear policy and its implications for US-China relations, and the effects of the war on European nuclear debates. The panelists also explore the potential for nuclear risk reduction measures and the lessons learned from Ukraine's disarmament in the 1990s, as well as the implications of a potential Trump presidency on nuclear thinking and international relations.

Outlines

Part 1: Introduction and Context

Part 2: Strategic Considerations and Nuclear Postures

Part 3: Nuclear Safety and Risk Factors

Part 4: Future Scenarios and Risk Reduction

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Sinica Podcast

Part 1: Introduction and Context

Introduction to Nuclear Weapons, Ukraine, and Great Power Competition

Panelist Introductions and Initial Questions on Russia's Nuclear Signaling

Parsing Nuclear Risks in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Impact of Russia's Nuclear Rhetoric on the Global Nuclear Order

Assessing the Effectiveness of Russia's Nuclear Scaremongering

The Danger of the Current Moment and Civilian Nuclear Threats

Part 2: Strategic Considerations and Nuclear Postures

Discussion on Golden Dome and Lessons of Restraint

China's Position on Tactical Nuclear Weapons

China's Nuclear Stockpile and Risk Reduction Talks

Initial Reactions and Historical Comparisons

Belarus as a Nuclear Platform and European Nuclear Debates

Part 3: Nuclear Safety and Risk Factors

Civilian Nuclear Power and the Seizure of Zaporizhzhia

Strategic Intent and the Human Dimension of Nuclear Safety in Wartime

North Korea's Transfers to Russia and Nuclear Risk Externalities

Beijing's Interpretation of European Nuclear Adjustments

European Public Opinion and Reactions to Nuclear Threats

Moscow's Nuclear Risk Calculus and Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia

Russia's Potential Use of Nuclear Weapons and Public Discourse

Part 4: Future Scenarios and Risk Reduction

Donald Trump and Nuclear Thinking in the Kremlin

Confidence-Building Measures and Emerging Technology

Trump's Inconsistency and the Impact on Ukraine

US-China Nuclear Contacts and Perspectives

Lessons from Ukraine's Choices in the 1990s

The Optics of Ukraine and the Need for Rethinking European Security

Nuclear Weapons, Ukraine, and Great-Power Competition

Sinica Podcast

Part 1: Introduction and Context

00:09Introduction to Nuclear Weapons, Ukraine, and Great Power Competition

Introduction to Nuclear Weapons, Ukraine, and Great Power Competition

03:21Panelist Introductions and Initial Questions on Russia's Nuclear Signaling

Panelist Introductions and Initial Questions on Russia's Nuclear Signaling

06:34Parsing Nuclear Risks in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Parsing Nuclear Risks in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

10:16The Impact of Russia's Nuclear Rhetoric on the Global Nuclear Order

The Impact of Russia's Nuclear Rhetoric on the Global Nuclear Order

12:57Assessing the Effectiveness of Russia's Nuclear Scaremongering

Assessing the Effectiveness of Russia's Nuclear Scaremongering

15:43The Danger of the Current Moment and Civilian Nuclear Threats

The Danger of the Current Moment and Civilian Nuclear Threats

Part 2: Strategic Considerations and Nuclear Postures

18:04Discussion on Golden Dome and Lessons of Restraint

Discussion on Golden Dome and Lessons of Restraint

21:16China's Position on Tactical Nuclear Weapons

China's Position on Tactical Nuclear Weapons

24:00China's Nuclear Stockpile and Risk Reduction Talks

China's Nuclear Stockpile and Risk Reduction Talks

27:16Initial Reactions and Historical Comparisons

Initial Reactions and Historical Comparisons

29:35Belarus as a Nuclear Platform and European Nuclear Debates

Belarus as a Nuclear Platform and European Nuclear Debates

Part 3: Nuclear Safety and Risk Factors

32:24Civilian Nuclear Power and the Seizure of Zaporizhzhia

Civilian Nuclear Power and the Seizure of Zaporizhzhia

35:05Strategic Intent and the Human Dimension of Nuclear Safety in Wartime

Strategic Intent and the Human Dimension of Nuclear Safety in Wartime

39:13North Korea's Transfers to Russia and Nuclear Risk Externalities

North Korea's Transfers to Russia and Nuclear Risk Externalities

41:31Beijing's Interpretation of European Nuclear Adjustments

Beijing's Interpretation of European Nuclear Adjustments

44:23European Public Opinion and Reactions to Nuclear Threats

European Public Opinion and Reactions to Nuclear Threats

47:59Moscow's Nuclear Risk Calculus and Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia

Moscow's Nuclear Risk Calculus and Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia

50:58Russia's Potential Use of Nuclear Weapons and Public Discourse

Russia's Potential Use of Nuclear Weapons and Public Discourse

Part 4: Future Scenarios and Risk Reduction

53:42Donald Trump and Nuclear Thinking in the Kremlin

Donald Trump and Nuclear Thinking in the Kremlin

56:24Confidence-Building Measures and Emerging Technology

Confidence-Building Measures and Emerging Technology

58:24Trump's Inconsistency and the Impact on Ukraine

Trump's Inconsistency and the Impact on Ukraine

1:02:22US-China Nuclear Contacts and Perspectives

US-China Nuclear Contacts and Perspectives

1:05:15Lessons from Ukraine's Choices in the 1990s

Lessons from Ukraine's Choices in the 1990s

1:08:39The Optics of Ukraine and the Need for Rethinking European Security

The Optics of Ukraine and the Need for Rethinking European Security