In this episode of Flux Insights, Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian, Quantitative Research Associate Harinder Sandhu, and Research Associate Mita Chaturvedi analyse the latest developments in crude oil and refined product markets - including a sharp drop in Brent prices, CTA positioning reversals, and fresh insights from Onyx's proprietary COT data. With technical pressure building across Brent and gasoil futures, the team highlights key support levels, bearish momentum signals, and what traders should watch heading into mid-August.

They also unpack the impact of recent supply disruptions in Azeri crude on the naphtha market, examine the unwinding of long positions, and spotlight a high-conviction trade idea in DFL. Combining market structure analysis, technical signals, and proprietary trading data, this episode offers a comprehensive view for anyone navigating the oil markets.

This episode was recorded at 9am BST on 6th August, 2025

👉 Onyx Alpha report: https://www.flux.live/dashboards/onyx-alpha/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/OnyxEnergyNews

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

Chapters for this episode are:

0:00 Introduction

4:08 Market positioning

10:58 Technically speaking

20:16 COT deep dive

28:05 High conviction trade idea

32:33 Crystal ball (forecast predictions)

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

The Rise and Fall of DFLs: What Margins are Telling us About Crude

Flux News

The Rise and Fall of DFLs: What Margins are Telling us About Crude