Turkey was the first Muslim country to recognize Israel. I was an ally and vital trading partner for decades -- until the rise of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, head of the Islamist AKP party, who began pursuing a "neo-Ottomanist" foreign policy of Turkish influence and expansionism in the region, and specifically identified Israel as a long-term ideological enemy.

Turkey is now forging alliances on all Israel's borders and looking to found an Islamic defense alliance a la NATO. Earlier this year, Turkish lawmakers formally declared Israel the country's top national security threat.

As Iran's influence retreats in the wake of the war, Erdogan has already energetically stepped into the breach, calling for Israel to be dismantled and trying to position himself as leader of the Muslim political world. Unlike Iran, he may well have the military and geopolitical clout in the region to get it done.

Are the two countries on a trajectory for a clash in, say, 20 years' time? Or can these two Middle Eastern powers find a modus vivendi that prevents more conflict in the region?

We posed this question to Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a scholar at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University who grew up in Turkey's Jewish community and is today one of Israel's top Turkey analysts.

This episode was sponsored by an anonymous sponsor and dedicated to Aviv Atzili, 49, from Kibbutz Nir Oz, who was murdered by Hamas terrorists on October 7 was while fighting alongside the kibbutz’s emergency response team. His wife, Liat, was kidnapped that day, but was released as part of the first truce in November 2023.

Aviv's body was located and returned to Israel for burial in a joint IDF-Shin Bet operation in Gaza two days before the start of the Israel-Iran war together with the body of Yaakov Yagil, also from Nir Oz. We remember them.

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A podcast by Haviv Rettig Gur

Episode 24: With Iran down, Turkey steps into the breach - a conversation with Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak.

Ask Haviv Anything

Episode 24: With Iran down, Turkey steps into the breach - a conversation with Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak.