12 Jun 2025
1h 9m

MacroVoices #484 Rory Johnston: Crude Oil Forward Curve Conundrum

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Macro Voices

Macro Voices Episode 484 features an interview with Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, discussing the crude oil market. They delve into the unusual shape of the WTI forward curve, noting the shift from backwardation to contango around early 2026 and admitting they are unsure of the cause. The conversation covers fundamental drivers, geopolitical tensions, U.S. shale production, speculative positioning, and the impact of potential military action against Iran. They also explore the role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and Chinese inventory building, as well as blend stock and the potential for a blend stock crisis. Patrick Ceresna then joins Erik Townsend to discuss the Macro Scoreboard, covering equities, the U.S. dollar, crude oil, gold, uranium, and Treasury yields, providing technical analysis and market outlook.

Outlines

Part 1: Market Introduction

Part 2: Key Factors and Market Dynamics

Part 3: Market Analysis and Outlook

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