The Domino Has Fallen.

Refinery margins — the last bullish stronghold — are collapsing. This isn't just a signal; it's confirmation that the market is finally pricing in the oversupply reality that’s been building for months.

Goldman Sachs. The IEA. Every serious analyst has seen this coming — and now it’s here. The second half of the year marks a new regime: the geopolitical premium is dead, supply routes are open, and the market is done licking its wounds from last year’s chaos. Volatility has faded. Direction is back. The traders who see this shift are already positioning for what’s next: the great normalisation.

In this episode of Flux News, the team break down how this moment changes everything — and where the money moves now. They also discuss:

The collapse in refinery margins and what it signals
How the Brent/Dubai spread is spelling out a physical market reset
The surge in CTA and money manager positioning—and why it might be too late
Headline fatigue, flat volatility, and why everyone’s ignoring Iran… for now
Why Ryanair’s recent hedging could be a top signal for distillates
The crack collapse across gasoil, naphtha, and fuel oil
A breakdown of the Great Normalisation—and why directional trades are finally back on the menu

Goldman Sachs saw this coming. The IEA flagged it. Now it’s here: Geopolitical premium? Dead. Supply? Loose. Demand? Meh. The second half of the year is a new regime.

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Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

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Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 20th May, 2025.

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👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw

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The Geopolitical Premium Is Dead – Refinery Cracks Implode as the Oversupply Era Begins

Flux News

The Geopolitical Premium Is Dead – Refinery Cracks Implode as the Oversupply Era Begins