The Future of World Order

Are we entering a totally new period of American decline, or are the second Trump administration’s attacks on the institutions and alliances that defined the American Century just another cyclical disruption? Since "world order" is a matter of degree, we may not know until 2029.

Mar 4, 2025, Project Syndicate
by Joseph S. Nye, Jr.

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US President Donald Trump has cast serious doubts on the future of the postwar international order. In recent speeches and United Nations votes, his administration has sided with Russia, an aggressor that launched a war of conquest against its peaceful neighbor, Ukraine. His tariff threats have raised questions about longstanding alliances and the future of the global trading system, and his withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement and the World Health Organization has undercut cooperation on transnational threats.
The prospect of a wholly disengaged, self-focused United States has troubling implications for world order. It is easy to imagine Russia taking advantage of the situation to try to dominate Europe through the exercise or threat of force. Europe will have to show greater unity and provide for its own defense, even if a US backstop will remain important. Likewise, it is easy to imagine China asserting itself more in Asia, where it openly seeks dominance over its neighbors. Those neighbors will surely have taken note.

In fact, all countries will be affected, because the relationships among states and other major transnational actors are interconnected. An international order rests on a stable distribution of power among states; norms that influence and legitimize conduct; and shared institutions. A given international order can evolve incrementally without leading to a clear paradigm shift. But if the preeminent power’s domestic politics change too radically, all bets are off.

外刊精读275：“软实力”提出者约瑟夫.奈逝世，他如何预测世界秩序的未来 (Project Syndicate)

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外刊精读275：“软实力”提出者约瑟夫.奈逝世，他如何预测世界秩序的未来 (Project Syndicate)