Hi, and welcome to The Long View. I’m Dan Lefkovitz, strategist for Morningstar Indexes. Our guest this week is Daniel Rasmussen. He’s the founder and portfolio manager of Verdad Advisors, a hedge fund. Before starting Verdad, Dan worked at Bain Capital Private Equity and Bridgewater Associates. He’s a member of the investment committee of the trustees of donations of the Episcopal Church and he’s a contributor to The Wall Street Journal. Dan is author of the new book, The Humble Investor: How to find a winning edge in a surprising world. His earlier book was American Uprising: The Untold Story of America’s Largest Slave Revolt. Dan holds a bachelor’s from Harvard and an MBA from Stanford. Dan, thanks so much for joining us on The Long View.

Background

Forecasting

“Waves in Ship Prices and Investment,” by Sam Hanson and Robin Greenwood, Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 2014.

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Philip Tetlock

“Gaining Edge by Forecasting Volatility and Correlations,” by Dan Rasmussen, Chris Satterthwaite, and Lionel Smoler Schatz, verdadcap.com, Oct. 30, 2023.

Value Investing

“Where the Value Investing Strategy Still Works,” by Dan Rasmussen, ft.com, May 23, 2024.

“Factors from Scratch: A Look Back, and Forward, at How, When and Why Factors Work,” by Chris Meredith, Jesse Livermore, and Patrick O’Shaughnessy, osam.com, May 2018.

“The Size Factor: Small Caps Are Trading at the Steepest Discount to Large Caps in Decades,” by Dan Rasmussen and Brian Chingono, verdadcap.com, Aug. 22, 2022.

“The Small Cap Amplifier,” by Dan Rasmussen and Brian Chingono, verdadcap.com, Oct. 21, 2024.

“Explaining International Valuations,” by Dan Rasmussen, verdadcap.com, Jan. 27, 2025.

Private Credit and High Yield

“The ‘Fool’s Yield’ of Private Credit,” by Jamie Powell, ft.com, Jan. 28, 2020.

“Sizing Private Equity Allocations,” by Dan Rasmussen, verdadcap.com, May 13, 2024.

“The Best Macro Indicator: Why You Should Be Following High-Yield Spreads,” by Dan Rasmussen, verdadcap.com, May 17, 2021.

Crisis Investing

“Crisis Investing in Europe: The Unlikely Winners in the Most Difficult Times,” by Dan Rasmussen and Brian Chingono, verdadcap.com, May 16, 2022.

“EM Crisis Investing, A Deeper Dive: Understanding the Factors at Play in Emerging Markets,” by Verdad Research, verdadcap.com, May 3, 2022.

Daniel Rasmussen: ‘Be Very Wary of Illiquid Asset Classes’

The Long View

Daniel Rasmussen: ‘Be Very Wary of Illiquid Asset Classes’