Authors: Eli Lifland, Nikola Jurkovic[1], FutureSearch[2]

This is supporting research for AI 2027. We'll be cross-posting these over the next week or so.

Assumes no large-scale catastrophes happen (e.g., a solar flare, a pandemic, nuclear war), no government or self-imposed slowdown, and no significant supply chain disruptions. All forecasts give a substantial chance of superhuman coding arriving in 2027.

Summary

We forecast when the leading AGI company will internally develop a superhuman coder (SC): an AI system that can do any coding tasks that the best AGI company engineer does, while being much faster and cheaper. At this point, the SC will likely speed up AI progress substantially as is explored in our takeoff forecast.

We first show Method 1: time-horizon-extension, a relatively simple model which forecasts when SC will arrive by extending the trend established by METR's report of AIs accomplishing tasks that take humans increasing amounts [...]