Tariffs Could Blow Up the Bond Market | Mark Zandi on the Biggest Risk to the Economy

This interview podcast features Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, discussing the current US economy and potential threats. The conversation begins with Zandi's positive assessment of the economy's strength, crediting the Federal Reserve with a successful soft landing. However, he then highlights concerns about rising bond yields driven by anticipated inflationary policies, including potential tariffs and immigration restrictions. Zandi details his economic model, which suggests a 10-year Treasury yield reaching 7% for multiple quarters could trigger a recession. Finally, he expresses reservations about proposals to return Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the private sector without an explicit government guarantee, arguing it could negatively impact mortgage rates and financial stability. A key takeaway is Zandi's assertion that broad-based tariffs are a bad idea, historically leading to inflation and diminished growth.