DeepSeek released v3. Market didn’t react.

DeepSeek released r1. Market didn’t react.

DeepSeek released a f***ing app of its website. Market said I have an idea, let's panic.

Nvidia was down 11%, Nasdaq is down 2.5%, S&P is down 1.7%, on the news.

Shakeel: The fact this is happening today, and didn’t happen when r1 actually released last Wednesday, is a neat demonstration of how the market is in fact not efficient at all.

That is exactly the market's level of situational awareness. No more, no less.

I traded accordingly. But of course nothing here is ever investment advice.

Given all that has happened, it seems worthwhile to go over all the DeepSeek news that has happened since Thursday. Yes, since Thursday.

For previous events, see my top level post here, and additional notes on Thursday.

To avoid confusion: r1 [...]

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Outline:

(01:27) Current Mood

(03:04) DeepSeek Tops the Charts

(07:42) Why Is DeepSeek Topping the Charts?

(09:47) What Is the DeepSeek Business Model?

(13:48) The Lines on Graphs Case for Panic

(16:31) Everyone Calm Down About That $5.5 Million Number

(25:42) Is The Whale Lying?

(29:33) Capex Spending on Compute Will Continue to Go Up

(32:53) Jevon's Paradox Strikes Again

(36:24) Okay, Maybe Meta Should Panic

(39:02) Are You Short the Market

(43:52) o1 Versus r1

(47:23) Additional Notes on v3 and r1

(50:12) Janus-Pro-7B Sure Why Not

(50:44) Man in the Arena

(52:42) Training r1, and Training With r1

(56:34) Also Perhaps We Should Worry About AI Killing Everyone

(59:21) And We Should Worry About Crazy Reactions To All This, Too

(01:02:14) The Lighter Side

The original text contained 10 images which were described by AI.

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First published:
January 28th, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hRxGrJJq6ifL4jRGa/deepseek-panic-at-the-app-store

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

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“DeepSeek Panic at the App Store” by Zvi

LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“DeepSeek Panic at the App Store” by Zvi