E129: The Number #1 Predictor of Startup Success w/Ken Smythe

This interview podcast focuses on venture capital investing strategies, specifically within the secondary market. The discussion begins by exploring the speaker's unique investment signal—key executives leaving large companies to join startups—illustrated by the example of OpenAI. The conversation then shifts to a comparison of this signal to traditional VC firm investments, highlighting the higher risk and potential reward associated with executive moves. Finally, the discussion covers the secondary market's diverse investor base, including VCs, hedge funds, family offices, and retail investors, and the challenges VCs face in achieving DPI (distributed to partners) amidst a changing market landscape. The speaker emphasizes the importance of strong teams and fundamental research in both venture capital and hedge fund management.