17:I[66739,["/_next/static/chunks/0.3dg.jzl0xwf.js?dpl=dpl_F1YwpydxFehTJxgSzTNBrUVRTQpv","/_next/static/chunks/0s3w63gp9~d8s.js?dpl=dpl_F1YwpydxFehTJxgSzTNBrUVRTQpv","/_next/static/chunks/0kllbnt_hzshd.js?dpl=dpl_F1YwpydxFehTJxgSzTNBrUVRTQpv","/_next/static/chunks/053zyoym-_i67.js?dpl=dpl_F1YwpydxFehTJxgSzTNBrUVRTQpv","/_next/static/chunks/0u2ayibg4ahb..js?dpl=dpl_F1YwpydxFehTJxgSzTNBrUVRTQpv","/_next/static/chunks/0i99rkyrer3ax.js?dpl=dpl_F1YwpydxFehTJxgSzTNBrUVRTQpv"],"default"] 19:I[38632,["/_next/static/chunks/0qqtp3r0h7kah.js?dpl=dpl_F1YwpydxFehTJxgSzTNBrUVRTQpv","/_next/static/chunks/0iukvycbd42rl.js?dpl=dpl_F1YwpydxFehTJxgSzTNBrUVRTQpv"],"IconMark"] 18:T50b,This is a link post.

Once robots can do physical jobs, how quickly could they become a significant part of the work force?

Here's a couple of fermi estimates, showing (among other things) that converting car factories might be able to produce 1 billion robots per year in under 5 years.

Nothing too new here if you've been following Carl Shulman for years, but I thought it could be useful to have a reference article. Please let me know about corrections or other ways to improve the estimates.

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First published:
January 12th, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Jo4oCzPuXYgmB45q/how-quickly-could-robots-scale-up

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“How quickly could robots scale up?” by Benjamin_Todd

LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“How quickly could robots scale up?” by Benjamin_Todd