(Cross-post from https://amistrongeryet.substack.com/p/are-we-on-the-brink-of-agi, lightly edited for LessWrong. The original has a lengthier introduction and a bit more explanation of jargon.)

No one seems to know whether transformational AGI is coming within a few short years. Or rather, everyone seems to know, but they all have conflicting opinions. Have we entered into what will in hindsight be not even the early stages, but actually the middle stage, of the mad tumbling rush into singularity? Or are we just witnessing the exciting early period of a new technology, full of discovery and opportunity, akin to the boom years of the personal computer and the web?

AI is approaching elite skill at programming, possibly barreling into superhuman status at advanced mathematics, and only picking up speed. Or so the framing goes. And yet, most of the reasons for skepticism are still present. We still evaluate AI only on neatly encapsulated, objective tasks [...]