My median expectation is that AGI[1] will be created 3 years from now. This has implications on how to behave, and I will share some useful thoughts I and others have had on how to orient to short timelines.

I’ve led multiple small workshops on orienting to short AGI timelines and compiled the wisdom of around 50 participants (but mostly my thoughts) here. I’ve also participated in multiple short-timelines AGI wargames and co-led one wargame.

This post will assume median AGI timelines of 2027 and will not spend time arguing for this point. Instead, I focus on what the implications of 3 year timelines would be.

I didn’t update much on o3 (as my timelines were already short) but I imagine some readers did and might feel disoriented now. I hope this post can help those people and others in thinking about how to plan for 3 year [...]

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Outline:

(01:16) A story for a 3 year AGI timeline

(03:46) Important variables based on the year

(03:58) The pre-automation era (2025-2026).

(04:56) The post-automation era (2027 onward).

(06:05) Important players

(08:00) Prerequisites for humanity's survival which are currently unmet

(11:19) Robustly good actions

(13:55) Final thoughts

The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
December 22nd, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jb4bBdeEEeypNkqzj/orienting-to-3-year-agi-timelines

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

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“Orienting to 3 year AGI timelines” by Nikola Jurkovic

LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“Orienting to 3 year AGI timelines” by Nikola Jurkovic