On Carcinogenic Complexity, Software Senescence and Cognitive Provenance: Our roadmap for 2025 and beyond

It is mandatory to start any essay on AI in the post-ChatGPT era with the disclaimer that AI brings huge potential, and great risks. Unfortunately, on the path we are currently on, we will not realize those benefits, but are far more likely to simply drown in terrible AI slop, undermine systemic cybersecurity and blow ourselves up.

We believe AI on its current path will continue to progress exponentially, to the point where it can automate, and summarily replace, all of humanity. We are unlikely to survive such a transition.

Powerful technology always comes with powerful risks, but this does not mean we have to wait idly for the other shoe to drop. Risks can be managed and prevented, while harnessing the benefits. We have done it with aviation, nuclear and other risky technologies [...]

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Outline:

(01:47) Part 1: Cognitive Software

(03:01) AI, what is it good for?

(04:37) A Tale of a Database

(06:35) The Punchline Should Be Obvious

(08:36) Part 2: AI Slop and Complexity Debt

(12:02) The Strange Decoupling and Software Senescence

(15:33) Algorithmic Carcinogenesis

(20:53) Neither New Nor Unsolvable

(28:20) Part 3: A Better Future and How to Get There: A Roadmap

(29:41) Phase 1: Foundational Infrastructure

(32:52) Phase 2: Cognitive Language Design and Computational Control

(38:47) Phase 3: Horizontal Scaling: Scaling Without Sprawling

(44:31) Phase 4: Vertical Scaling: Deliberate Teaching and Cognitive Provenance

(48:19) Phase 5: Cognitive Emulation (CoEm)

(51:51) Conclusion: A Future Worth Building

The original text contained 3 images which were described by AI.

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First published:
December 2nd, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H26ndkABmGvoc9PTC/conjecture-a-roadmap-for-cognitive-software-and-a-humanist

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Conjecture: A Roadmap for Cognitive Software and A Humanist Future of AI” by Connor Leahy, Gabriel Alfour

LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“Conjecture: A Roadmap for Cognitive Software and A Humanist Future of AI” by Connor Leahy, Gabriel Alfour