A Credit Cycle That Hasn’t Cycled (Guest: Dario Perkins)

This podcast episode delves into the complexities of the current economic cycle, emphasizing that post-COVID dynamics have rendered traditional economic models and indicators misleading. Macroeconomist Dario Perkins outlines various themes, including the distorted nature of labor market signals, the evolving narratives surrounding economic landing scenarios, and the implications of a secular bear market in bonds driven by shifting real interest rates. He critiques central banks’ reactions to inflation as overreactions rooted in historical fears and discusses the rising prominence of fiscal policy in shaping economic outcomes. Additionally, the episode provides insights on portfolio management in this new economic environment, highlights vulnerabilities in Canada's mortgage landscape, and reviews critical market trends and indicators.